Companies · · 2 min read
OpenAI’s revenue run rate is near $50 billion, not $70 billion, FT says
OpenAI told investors its annualized revenue was about $50 billion in September, well below figures that had circulated, and AI stocks from Nvidia to CoreWeave fell.
The short answer
The Financial Times (FT) reported that OpenAI told investors its annualized revenue was approaching $50 billion in September, far below the roughly $70 billion that had been widely reported. CNBC confirmed the $50 billion figure. Shares of Nvidia, Oracle, CoreWeave and other AI names fell as investors reassessed how quickly AI spending pays off.
What’s going on here?
According to the Financial Times (FT), OpenAI recently told investors its annualized revenue was nearing $50 billion in September, around $20 billion less than the figure that had been widely reported. CNBC confirmed that OpenAI shared roughly $50 billion at the end of September in an investor presentation. A person familiar with the matter told CNBC the higher $68 billion number that circulated last month included gross revenue from OpenAI's partners. The same person said OpenAI reported 77% run-rate growth in the third quarter and 107% for its enterprise business. AI stocks including Nvidia, Oracle and CoreWeave fell on Thursday.
What does this mean?
Annualized revenue, often called the run rate, takes recent sales and projects them over a full year. It is a common yardstick for fast-growing private companies, but it depends heavily on what gets counted. Here the gap seems to come from whether partner revenue is included, which CNBC's source said makes comparisons with rival Anthropic easier. The underlying business has not shrunk; what changed is the number investors were anchoring to.
That still matters because OpenAI sits at the center of the AI spending boom. CNBC said the company is valued at $852 billion, filed confidentially for a stock market listing in June and has signaled a 2027 debut. It is also in early talks about a new funding round that could raise around $30 billion, after closing a $122 billion round in March. A valuation that large rests on expectations of very rapid revenue growth, so a smaller starting point can change the math.
The selloff in chip and cloud stocks shows how closely the market links OpenAI's finances to the wider AI trade. Companies such as Nvidia, Oracle and CoreWeave are widely seen as beneficiaries of AI labs spending heavily on computing power. When the best-known AI lab turns out to have a smaller revenue base than investors assumed, some start to ask how quickly that spending can be funded, even if growth stays strong.
The growth figures cut the other way. A 77% jump in run rate in a single quarter, with enterprise sales more than doubling, is rapid by almost any standard. The reaction suggests investors are becoming more sensitive to the gap between AI ambitions and AI revenue, rather than doubting that demand exists.
The bull case
Run-rate growth of 77% in one quarter, and 107% in the enterprise business, points to strong demand for OpenAI's products. CFO Sarah Friar told CNBC the company is still very well capitalized, and investor demand is driving talks on a new round. If revenue keeps compounding at that pace, the gap with earlier figures could close quickly, supporting the chipmakers and cloud providers that supply it.
The bear case
A $50 billion run rate is a much smaller base for an $852 billion valuation, and it arrives as OpenAI prepares for a possible listing. AI infrastructure companies have been valued on expectations of heavy spending by AI labs. If investors grow more cautious about AI returns, funding could get harder and AI-linked stocks could stay under pressure.
Why should I care?
For markets:
AI infrastructure stocks, including chipmakers like Nvidia and cloud providers like Oracle and CoreWeave, are most exposed to shifts in sentiment about OpenAI's finances. Broader tech indexes with heavy AI weightings could also swing on further disclosures.
The bigger picture:
Many index funds and retirement accounts hold large positions in AI-linked tech giants. Episodes like this show how sensitive those holdings can be to a single private company's numbers.
Market impact
| Asset (ticker) | Potential direction | Timeframe | Confidence | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nvidia (NVDA) | ↓ bearish | Short term | Medium | Lower OpenAI revenue raises questions about the pace of AI chip spending. |
| Oracle (ORCL) | ↓ bearish | Short term | Medium | Oracle fell with other AI names as investors reassessed AI spending prospects. |
| CoreWeave (CRWV) | ↓ bearish | Short term | Medium | CoreWeave's shares trade on expectations of strong AI computing demand. |
Potential impact, not investment advice.
Frequently asked questions
How much revenue does OpenAI make?
OpenAI told investors its annualized revenue was about $50 billion at the end of September, according to the Financial Times, a figure CNBC confirmed. That is an estimate of yearly sales based on recent results, not a reported annual total, and it is lower than the roughly $68 billion to $70 billion figures that had circulated.
Why did Nvidia and Oracle stock fall on OpenAI news?
Nvidia, Oracle and CoreWeave are widely viewed as beneficiaries of heavy AI spending. When the Financial Times reported that OpenAI's revenue run rate was about $50 billion rather than around $70 billion, investors reassessed how quickly AI labs can fund their computing needs, and these shares fell on Thursday, CNBC reported.
When is the OpenAI IPO?
OpenAI has not set a date. CNBC reported that the company confidentially filed its prospectus with regulators in June and that executives have signaled a stock market debut in 2027. It is also in early talks about raising new private funding.
Sources: Financial Times, CNBC
