Markets · · 2 min read
Editor: Bohdan S.
European gas price hits highest since 2022 as winter nears with low storage
Europe's benchmark gas price climbed to about €86 per megawatt-hour, a level last seen in December 2022. Thin storage, colder forecasts and a US-Ukraine row over Russian diesel are adding pressure before winter.
The short answer
European wholesale gas prices rose to around €86 per megawatt-hour on Tuesday, the highest since December 2022 and, the Financial Times (FT) reported, a peak for the Iran war period. Storage sites are only about three-quarters full, colder weather is forecast, and that points to higher heating and power bills this winter.
What happened
Europe's benchmark Dutch TTF gas price rose 2.85% on Tuesday to about €86.76 per megawatt-hour, according to Trading Economics, its highest level since December 2022 and roughly 173% above a year earlier. The Financial Times (FT) reported that prices hit their highest level since the Iran war began, pushed up by a stand-off between Washington and Kyiv over Russian diesel and by the approach of cold weather. Europe's gas storage was about 73.75% full, well below normal for mid-October, and forecasts point to colder conditions in northwestern Europe from next weekend.
What it means
Europe heads into winter with less gas in reserve than usual. Storage acts as a cushion: countries fill underground sites over the summer and draw on them when heating demand peaks. With tanks around three-quarters full in mid-October, the market has less room to absorb a cold spell or a supply interruption, so prices react sharply to any hint of either. Trading Economics described the market as especially exposed to sudden temperature swings or surprise outages while reserves stay this low.
The Middle East conflict is the main backdrop. Trading Economics noted that North Asian liquefied natural gas (LNG), gas cooled into liquid so it can travel by ship, is costing nearly three times its pre-war level. That matters because Europe and Asia compete for the same cargoes, and when Asian buyers pay up, Europe must pay more to attract shipments.
Politics has added a new twist. President Trump has agreed to let Russia export about 4.8 million metric tons of diesel through mid-April, a deal Ukraine's president criticized and that 12 US senators from both parties asked him to cancel on Tuesday, CNBC reported. The FT linked the resulting stand-off between Washington and Kyiv to the latest rise in gas prices, as it raises fresh uncertainty over energy flows and the war in Ukraine.
For context, prices are still far below the all-time high of €345 reached in March 2022, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But a near-tripling over a year is a heavy burden for households and energy-hungry industries.
The bull case
Prices remain a fraction of the 2022 peak, and forecasters at Trading Economics expect them to ease slightly by the end of the quarter. A mild winter, a calmer Middle East or a resolution of the diesel dispute could take pressure off quickly. For gas producers and LNG exporters, higher prices also mean stronger revenues while the supply squeeze lasts.
The bear case
With storage below normal and colder weather on the way, Europe has little margin for error. Any new attack on Gulf shipping or an unexpected supply outage could send prices sharply higher, while competition from Asian buyers keeps LNG costly. That would feed into electricity bills, factory costs and inflation, making life harder for central banks trying to bring prices down.
Why it matters
For investors
Higher gas prices tend to help European gas producers and hurt energy-intensive industries such as chemicals and utilities that cannot pass on costs, while also pushing up eurozone inflation expectations.
The wider context
Wholesale gas costs eventually flow into household heating and electricity bills, so a sustained rise could make this winter more expensive for European families.
Market impact
| Asset (ticker) | Possible move | Timeframe | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dutch TTF natural gas futures (TTF) | ↑ Up | Short term | Low storage and colder forecasts leave little buffer against supply shocks. |
| Equinor (EQNR) | ↑ Up | Short term | A major European gas producer could earn more while prices stay elevated. |
| Euro (EUR/USD) | ↓ Down | Short term | Higher energy import costs weigh on the eurozone's economic outlook. |
The FinPrism newsroom's view of how these figures could move, as of . It is general news commentary, not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything.
Frequently asked questions
Why are European gas prices rising?
Several pressures are combining: storage is only about 74% full, colder weather is forecast for northwestern Europe, and the Middle East conflict has driven up LNG prices worldwide. The FT also linked the latest rise to a US-Ukraine dispute over a deal letting Russia export diesel.
How high are European gas prices now?
The Dutch TTF benchmark rose to about €86.76 per megawatt-hour on October 13, 2026, according to Trading Economics. That is the highest since December 2022 and about 173% higher than a year ago, though still well below the record of €345 set in March 2022.
Will European energy bills go up this winter?
Wholesale gas prices feed into household bills with a delay, depending on how suppliers buy gas and how regulators set price caps. If prices stay near current levels or rise further during a cold winter, higher heating and electricity costs are likely to follow for many households.
Sources: Financial Times, Trading Economics, CNBC
How this was made: written with AI assistance from the sources listed above, following our editorial standards.
