Anthropic files for Nasdaq IPO, revealing $80.7bn half-year loss

What happened

On Monday, Anthropic said it had filed a Form S-1 registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission and plans a Nasdaq Global Select Market listing with the ticker ANT. The number of shares and the price range are still blank. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley head a group of 22 banks. The Financial Times (FT) reported that the prospectus runs to roughly 240,000 words and pairs very fast growth with heavy losses. According to the filing, revenue reached $16.3bn in the six months to June 30, up from $1.16bn a year earlier, while the net loss came to $80.7bn. Media reports point to pricing in mid-November.

What it means

The headline loss looks alarming, but most of it never left the bank. About $72.4bn came from the rising fair value of convertible notes, which are loans that later turn into shares, because Anthropic's own valuation climbed. Another $8.8bn related mainly to note purchase agreements with Google and Amazon. Before those financing items, the business posted an operating loss of $693m for the half, and in the second quarter it booked its first operating profit, $974m, on revenue of $11.6bn. Operations also brought in $3.9bn of cash. Still, StockTitan pointed out that the paper charge has a real cost: once the notes convert, every other holder owns a smaller slice.

The bigger question is the cost of computing power. The filing lists minimum commitments of at least $110bn with Amazon, about $114.5bn with Google and $44.9bn with Microsoft, plus roughly $161.2bn of five-year equipment leases with Broadcom and deals with SpaceX's AI unit worth up to $120.5bn into 2029. Most customers, by contrast, pay for what they use, and many can reduce usage with little or no notice. NBC News reported that the cost of renting servers and chips rose 300% in the second quarter from a year earlier, and Anthropic warned it may need to raise more money sooner than it expects.

Public shareholders will have limited say. A company owned by the seven co-founders will hold one Class F share carrying 50.1% of votes on ordinary matters, while the Long-Term Benefit Trust elects most of the board through a Class T share. Anthropic stays a public benefit corporation, meaning directors must weigh a stated mission alongside profit, and it does not expect to pay dividends. Amazon and Google will each own more than 5% after the offering through non-voting shares, and their cloud marketplaces, along with Microsoft's, delivered about 48% of first-half revenue.

The filing gives no company value. CoinDesk said the FT reported investor expectations of $1.5tn to $1.75tn, while The Wall Street Journal, cited by The Next Web, put the range at $1.5tn to $2tn with $100bn or more raised. NBC News noted the deal arrives as worries about the AI boom have led several smaller companies to delay or cancel listings this month.

The bull case

Revenue grew about 14 times in a year, the second quarter showed an operating profit, and operating cash flow turned positive in the first half. More than 11,900 customers now pay at least $100,000 a year, up from about 950 a year earlier. With $112.4bn in cash and $19.3bn in short-term investments, Anthropic has a large cushion, and suppliers such as Broadcom, Amazon and Google stand to collect on its heavy spending.

The bear case

Anthropic itself warned it "may not generate sufficient revenue to achieve or sustain profitability." It has signed hundreds of billions of dollars of largely fixed computing contracts while much of its revenue depends on usage. Its top five customers supplied about 25% of sales in the first nine months, Class A buyers will have little voting power, and it faces an FTC civil investigative demand plus a court fight over a Department of War supply-chain risk label. A valuation near the reported range would leave little room for disappointment.