Eli Lilly lifts 2026 sales outlook to $92bn as Zepbound and Mounjaro boom

What happened

Eli Lilly, the Indianapolis drugmaker behind the diabetes shot Mounjaro and the obesity shot Zepbound, posted third-quarter revenue of $24.4 billion, up 39% from a year earlier. Analysts polled by LSEG had expected about $22.61 billion, CNBC reported. Adjusted earnings came to $7.48 per share against forecasts of $6.26. Net income rose to $6.45 billion from $5.58 billion. The company lifted its 2026 revenue range to $91 billion to $92 billion, from $85 billion to $87 billion. The Financial Times (FT) reported that profits surged, that the stock reached a new record, and that this was the second outlook upgrade in three months.

What it means

The two blockbuster shots carried the quarter. Mounjaro brought in $10.72 billion worldwide, a 65% jump, with sales outside the US up 93%. Zepbound added $5.35 billion, almost all of it in America. Both came in above the StreetAccount estimates cited by CNBC. Together they made up roughly two thirds of total revenue, which shows how heavily Lilly now leans on one family of medicines, known as GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a gut hormone that curbs appetite and helps control blood sugar.

Growth is coming from volume rather than price. In the US, Lilly said the number of units sold rose 41%, while realized prices fell 7%, mostly because of Zepbound. Abroad, volume climbed 76% but prices dropped 29%. Lower US prices followed a pricing agreement with the Trump administration last year, according to CNBC. Medicare also began covering GLP-1 drugs for weight loss in July under a temporary pilot, which Lilly said widened access. Chief executive Dave Ricks told CNBC the room for expanding the obesity market is "dramatic."

Not everything beat expectations. Foundayo, Lilly's new obesity pill approved in the US in April, generated $184 million, short of the roughly $229 million analysts had pencilled in. Lilly said prescriptions for the pill doubled from the prior quarter and that about four in ten patients starting an oral obesity drug pick it. The headline numbers also got a lift of around $900 million from one-off items, including a final $410 million milestone payment tied to the diabetes drug Jardiance and favorable changes to rebate estimates.

There is a twist in the profit outlook. Lilly trimmed its full-year adjusted earnings guidance to $35.00 to $36.00 per share from $35.50 to $36.50. The company said underlying profit guidance actually rose by $4.07 per share at the midpoint, but $4.57 per share of charges for buying early-stage research through deals more than offset it. Those deals include the purchases of AtaiBeckley, focused on depression treatments, and Merida Biosciences, which works on autoimmune and allergic diseases.

The bull case

Lilly is selling more of its key drugs even as prices fall, which suggests demand is deep and still growing. It held about 63% of the US obesity and diabetes drug market in the quarter, versus 36.6% for Novo Nordisk, per its earnings presentation. Medicare coverage is widening access, and the next-generation drug retatrutide beat Ozempic in a late-stage diabetes trial, with an FDA filing planned for early next year.

The bear case

Lilly depends heavily on two related medicines, so any slowdown in demand, new competition or further price cuts could hit revenue hard. Realized prices are already falling sharply, especially outside the US. The new pill Foundayo missed forecasts, and roughly $900 million of this quarter's revenue came from one-off items that will not repeat. Deal charges also pushed full-year adjusted earnings guidance lower.