NBA signs Kalshi, Polymarket deals and CFTC pact as NFL holds out

What happened

Basketball is now officially in the prediction market business. The NBA said on Monday that Kalshi and Polymarket will be its preferred exchanges, giving both platforms rights to use league intellectual property for marketing and licensing. At the same time, the CFTC announced that Chairman Michael Selig and NBA Commissioner Adam Silver had signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to share information and talk regularly about integrity issues. The league said its deals with the two exchanges limit which markets can be offered, bar league and team staff from trading NBA contracts, and require both firms to share information on suspicious trades and investigations.

What it means

Prediction markets let people trade simple yes-or-no contracts on future events, such as who wins a game. Much of the industry's growth over the past year has come from sports. The NBA is the third big North American league to strike this kind of arrangement, after the NHL, which signed with both Kalshi and Polymarket in October 2025, and MLB, which partnered with Polymarket in March, according to CNBC. Both leagues also have their own MOUs with the CFTC.

The deal also lands in the middle of a legal fight over who gets to police these markets. The platforms and the CFTC say event contracts are swaps, a kind of derivative, so federal rules apply. Many states argue they are simply sports bets that belong under state gambling law. Courts have split, with two of three major federal rulings favoring the states, CoinDesk reported. The Supreme Court has been asked to settle the question, and the NFL backed that request, arguing that the federal regulator's oversight is too thin.

Silver has taken the opposite view. He told CNBC earlier this month that the NBA answers to roughly 40 jurisdictions and that a single national policy would serve the league better. By signing with the CFTC, the NBA is effectively siding with federal oversight. Selig said in the CFTC release that the agreement helps protect market participants from abuses such as insider trading and fraud.

There is a money angle beyond the leagues. Bernstein analysts estimate that prediction markets could bring Robinhood about $1.7 billion in revenue by 2028, up from roughly $650 million this year, Cointelegraph reported. That would top the $1.6 billion Bernstein expects Robinhood to earn from crypto that year and make up around 18% of its projected $9.4 billion in total revenue. Robinhood reports third-quarter results on Tuesday.

The bull case

League backing makes prediction markets look less like a fringe product and more like an accepted part of sports. Official partnerships bring marketing rights, brand recognition and data cooperation, which could draw in more users and trading volume. For listed players such as Robinhood, Bernstein sees event contracts growing into a revenue line larger than crypto by 2028, and support from three major leagues could strengthen the case for federal rather than state rules.

The bear case

The legal foundation is still shaky. Two of three major federal rulings sided with the states, and the Supreme Court could end up restricting sports contracts or handing them to state gambling regulators. The NFL has openly sided with the states. Recent betting scandals, including more than 30 arrests last year in a federal gambling probe, show how integrity problems could hurt trust and invite tighter rules.